Njengoba "kuyisistimu yezinzwa ephakathi" yayo yonke i-smart TV, i-mainboard ihlanganisa izingxenye eziyinhloko ezifana nama-chip okulawula ayinhloko, amadivayisi okugcina, amabhodi wesekethe aphrintiwe (ama-PCB), kanye nezingxenye ezingasebenzi. Ukuguquguquka kwamanani ezinto zayo zokusetshenziswa kuthinta ngqo ukuguquguquka kwezindleko zomkhakha wonke we-TV. Kusukela ekupheleni kuka-2024 kuya ku-2025, izinto zokusetshenziswa eziyinhloko zamabhodi amakhulu e-smart TV zingene ndawonye esiteshini sokwenyusa intengo: intengo yokuthenga yamamojula e-4GB DDR4 ikhuphuke ngo-18% unyaka nonyaka, intengo yeyunithi yememori ye-flash ye-32GB ye-eMMC ikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-15%, kanti amanani e-laminates embozwe ngethusi, ama-capacitor aphezulu kanye neminye imikhiqizo nawo aqhubeke nokukhuphuka, okuletha ingcindezi enkulu yezindleko kubakhiqizi bebhodi elikhulu kanyeamabhizinisiLokhu kukhuphuka kwentengo akubangelwa yisici esisodwa, kodwa umphumela ohlangene wamandla amaningi afana namaphethini okuhlinzekwa kwezidingo, ukuphindaphinda kobuchwepheshe, kanye nokuhlelwa kabusha kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo.
I. Ukungalingani phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo sezingxenye eziyinhloko, lapho isitoreji kanye nezingxenye ezingasebenzi kuholela ekukhuleni kwentengo
Njenge-"isikhungo sememori" sebhodi elikhulu, amadivayisi okugcina anomthelela oqondile ezindleleni ngokushintshashintsha kwamanani awo. Imemori ye-DDR kanye nememori ye-flash embedded ye-eMMC ibiza u-12%-18% wezindleko zezinto zebhodi elikhulu. Imakethe yokugcina yonke igxile kakhulu emabhizinisini ahamba phambili njenge-Samsung, i-SK Hynix, kanye ne-Micron, futhi ukulungiswa kwamandla abo okukhiqiza kulawula ngqo ukuthambekela kwentengo. Ekupheleni kuka-2024, abakhiqizi besitoreji abajwayelekile basebenzise ukunciphisa kokukhiqiza ukuze banciphise isitokwe esiphezulu sangaphambilini, okwaholela ekuqinisweni kancane kancane kokunikezwa kwama-wafer e-NAND Flash kanye ne-DRAM, okwaphoqa intengo yama-chip okugcina ukuthi ikhuphuke njalo kusukela kwikota yesine ka-2024.Amabhizinisi e-TVnjengoba inani lokuthunyelwa minyaka yonke lingaphezu kwezigidi ezi-5, ukwenyuka kwentengo yesitoreji kukodwa kudinga izindleko ezengeziwe zonyaka zamaRandi ayizigidi ezi-5-6.
Insimu yezingxenye ezingasebenzi iveza ukwenyuka kwentengo kwesakhiwo okuphawuleka “kokushoda kwemikhiqizo ephezulu kanye nenqwaba yemikhiqizo ephakathi kuya kwephansi”. Izingxenye ezifana ne-MLCC (ama-capacitor e-ceramic chip anezingqimba eziningi) kanye nama-capacitor e-tantalum adingekayoamabhodi amakhulu e-TV ahlakaniphilengesikhathi esisodwa babhekene nokucindezelwa kwesidingo esivela kumaseva e-AI kanye nezimoto ezintsha zamandla. Ukusetshenziswa kwe-MLCC kweseva eyodwa ye-AI kuphindwe kabili kunokweseva yendabuko, kanti ukusetshenziswa kwe-tantalum capacitor kuphindwe kasishiyagalombili. Ukusetshenziswa kwe-MLCC ngemoto entsha yamandla kukhuphuke kusuka ezingcezu ezingu-6,000 zezimoto zikaphethiloli zendabuko kuya ezingcezu ezingu-18,000. Isidingo esikhulu siyaqhubeka nokuguqula amandla okukhiqiza ezingxenye zamabhodi amakhulu. Kuhlanganiswe neqiniso lokuthi amandla okukhiqiza ezingxenye ezingasebenzi eziphezulu agxile kubakhiqizi bamazwe ngamazwe abafana noMurata noYageo, futhi amandla okukhiqiza asekhaya akhuphuka kancane, igebe lokuhlinzekwa kwesidingo liyaqhubeka nokukhula, okwenza intengo ye-MLCC yezinga lezimoto ikhuphuke ngo-8%-12% ngokuhlangene, kanye nentengo yama-capacitor e-tantalum anamandla aphezulu ikhuphuke ngo-20%-30%.
II. Uchungechunge Lwemboni ye-PCB Ngaphansi Kwengcindezi Yezindleko, Izithiyo Ezimbili Zezinto Zokusetshenziswa kanye Nomthamo Wokukhiqiza
Njengohlaka "lwebhodi elikhulu", ukwenyuka kwentengo yamabhodi wesekethe aphrintiwe (ama-PCB) kubangelwa kakhulu yizici ezimbili zokwenyuka kwentengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nokuntuleka kwamandla okukhiqiza. Ithusi libiza cishe u-30% wezindleko zokukhiqiza ama-laminate ambozwe ngethusi, okuyizinto zokusetshenziswa eziyinhloko zama-PCB. Kusukela ngo-2023 kuya ku-2025, intengo yethusi yamazwe ngamazwe yahlala ezingeni eliphakeme ngokomlando, isekela ngqo intengo ephezulu yama-laminate ambozwe ngethusi. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, amanani ezinto ezisizayo njengendwangu yefayibha yengilazi kanye ne-epoxy resin akhuphuka ngokuvumelanayo: intengo yentambo kagesi yanda ngama-yuan angu-800 ngethani, kanti intengo yendwangu kagesi yanda ngama-yuan angu-0.3 ngemitha, okwandisa izindleko zokukhiqiza ama-laminate ambozwe ngethusi.
Ukuntuleka kwesakhiwo ohlangothini lomthamo wokukhiqiza kuye kwakhulisa ingcindezi yokwenyuka kwentengo. Isidingo esinamandla se-copper foil embonini yezimoto ezintsha zamandla siholele ekushintsheni okukhulu komthamo wokukhiqiza i-copper foil ye-PCB. Ukwakhiwa komthamo omusha wokukhiqiza i-copper foil ye-electrolytic kuthatha iminyaka engu-2-3 ukuqala ukusebenza, okwakha igebe lokunikezwa kwesikhathi eside. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amabhizinisi e-laminate aphesheya kwezilwandle afaka ithusi asheshisa ukuguqulwa kwawo abe yimikhiqizo ephezulu, futhi isilinganiso somthamo wokukhiqiza ophakathi kuya phansi siyaqhubeka nokwehla, okuholela ekungeneni kokunikezwa komhlaba wonke kwama-laminate afaka ithusi aphakathi kuya phansi. Amabhodi amakhulu e-smart TV asekhaya asebenzisa kakhulu ama-laminate afaka ithusi aphakathi kuya phansi, abhekene ngqo nomthelela ophindwe kabili wokungezwani kokunikezwa kanye nokwenyuka kwentengo. Idatha ikhombisa ukuthi intengo yokuthenga yama-laminate aqinile afaka ithusi ikhuphuke kakhulu engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2025, kanti ezinye izici zikhuphuka ngaphezu kuka-12%.
III. Ukuhlelwa Kabusha Kwezikebhe Zezimboni kanye Nemvelo Yangaphandle, Okwandisa Ukungaqiniseki Kokuguquguquka Kwentengo
Ukuhlelwa kabusha kwe-supply chain yomhlaba wonke kanye nezici ze-geopolitical kuye kwandisa kakhulu ukuguquguquka kwamanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa. Ngokuphikisana nomncintiswano wezobuchwepheshe we-Sino-US, amabhizinisi asekhaya asheshisa ukufakwa kwezingxenye eziyinhloko endaweni efana nama-main control chips. Izinga lokufakwa kwendawo kwama-smart TV main control chips lidlule u-35% ngo-2024. Kodwa-ke, amandla okukhiqiza爬坡kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwesivuno esigabeni sokuqala sokushintsha indawo kwenza kube nzima ngamanani ezinye izingxenye zasekhaya ukwakha inzuzo yezindleko esikhathini esifushane. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, abakhiqizi bebhodi elikhulu basungule indlela "yokuthenga ngemithombo emibili" ukuqinisekisa ukuphepha kweketanga lokuhlinzeka, kanti ukushintshana kanye nokulinganisela phakathi kwabahlinzeki basekhaya nabaphesheya kwandisa nokungaqiniseki kwezindleko zokuthenga.
Umphumela obekwe phezulu womjikelezo wempahla ukhulise ingcindezi yokwenyuka kwentengo yesikhashana. Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2024, imboni ye-elekthronikhi ngokuvamile yayisesigabeni sokukhishwa kwempahla, kanti impahla yezinto zokusetshenziswa ezifana nama-laminate ambozwe ngethusi kanye nendwangu yefayibha yengilazi yehle yaya ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu eminyakeni ecishe ibe mi-5, kanti izinsuku zempahla zezinye izincazelo zingaphansi kwezinsuku ezingama-30. Kusukela ekupheleni kuka-2024 kuya ekuqaleni kuka-2025, ukubuyiselwa kwesidingo esingezansi kanye nokuvuselelwa kwempahla kwenzeka ngasikhathi sinye. Lapho ukunikezwa kungakabuyi ngokugcwele, ukukhishwa okugxilile kwesidingo ngokumelene nesizinda sempahla ephansi kwakhuthaza ngqo ukwenyuka kwentengo okusheshayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izivumelwano zokuthenga zekota ezisayinwe phakathi kwabakhiqizi bebhodi eliyinhloko kanye nabaphakeli abaphezulu zinesikhathi sokulungiswa kwentengo, okuholela ekucindezelweni kwenzuzo yebhizinisi ngesikhathi sokwenyuka kwentengo yemakethe, okudlulisela phambili isidingo sokwenyuka kwentengo.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Novemba-20-2025
