Njenge "nkqubo ye-nervous central" ye-smart TV yonke, i-mainboard idibanisa izinto eziphambili ezifana neetships zokulawula eziphambili, izixhobo zokugcina, iibhodi zesekethe eziprintiweyo (ii-PCB), kunye nezinto ezingasebenziyo. Ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso ezinto zayo ezikrwada kuchaphazela ngokuthe ngqo amandla eendleko zeshishini leTV liphela. Ukususela ekupheleni kuka-2024 ukuya ku-2025, izinto eziphambili ze-smart TV mainboards zidibene zangena kwitshaneli yokunyusa amaxabiso: ixabiso lokuthenga leemodyuli ze-4GB DDR4 linyuke nge-18% unyaka nonyaka, ixabiso leyunithi ye-32GB ye-eMMC flash memory linyuke ngaphezulu kwe-15%, kwaye amaxabiso e-laminates ezigqunywe ngobhedu, ii-capacitors eziphezulu kunye nezinye iimveliso nazo ziqhubekile nokunyuka, zizisa uxinzelelo olukhulu lweendleko kubavelisi be-mainboard kunyeamashishiniOlu jikelezo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso alubangelwa yinto enye, kodwa lubangelwa yimpembelelo edibeneyo yamandla amaninzi afana neepateni zokubonelela ngeenkonzo, ukuphindaphinda kwetekhnoloji, kunye nohlengahlengiso lwekhonkco lokubonelela ngeenkonzo.
I. Ukungalingani phakathi kobonelelo kunye nemfuno yeenxalenye eziphambili, kunye nokugcinwa kunye neenxalenye ezingasebenziyo ezikhokelela ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso
Njenge "ziko lememori" lebhodi enkulu, izixhobo zokugcina zinempembelelo ethe ngqo kwiindleko ngokuguquguquka kwamaxabiso azo. Imemori ye-DDR kunye nememori ye-flash embedded ye-eMMC ibandakanya i-12%-18% yexabiso lezinto zebhodi enkulu. Imarike yokugcina yehlabathi igxile kakhulu kumashishini aphambili afana neSamsung, SK Hynix, kunye neMicron, kwaye uhlengahlengiso lwamandla abo emveliso lulawula ngokuthe ngqo umkhwa wamaxabiso. Ekupheleni kuka-2024, abavelisi beendawo zokugcina eziphambili baqalise ukunciphisa imveliso ukuze banciphise uluhlu lwamaxabiso aphezulu angaphambili, nto leyo ekhokelele ekuqinisweni okuncinci kokunikezelwa kwee-NAND Flash kunye nee-DRAM wafers, nto leyo eqhubele phambili ixabiso leetships zokugcina ukuba linyuke rhoqo ukusukela kwikota yesine ka-2024.Amashishini eTVngomthamo wokuthunyelwa ngonyaka ongaphezulu kwe-5 yezigidi zeeyunithi, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okugcina kuphela kufuna iindleko ezongezelelweyo zonyaka ze-5-6 yezigidi zeedola zaseMelika.
Intsimi yecandelo elingasebenziyo ibonakalisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso olwakhiwo oluphawu "lokunqongophala kweemveliso eziphezulu kunye nobuninzi beemveliso eziphakathi ukuya kwezisezantsi". Iinxalenye ezifana ne-MLCC (ii-capacitors ze-ceramic chip ezineeleya ezininzi) kunye nee-capacitors ze-tantalum ezifunekayoiibhodi eziphambili zeTV ezikrelekrelengaxeshanye zijongene nokuxinana kweemfuno ezivela kwiiseva ze-AI kunye nezithuthi zamandla ezintsha. Ukusetyenziswa kwe-MLCC kwiseva enye ye-AI kuphindwe kabini kunokweseva yendabuko, kwaye ukusetyenziswa kwe-tantalum capacitor kuphindwe kasibhozo. Ukusetyenziswa kwe-MLCC kwisithuthi esitsha samandla kunyuke ukusuka kwiziqwenga ezingama-6,000 kwizithuthi zamafutha zemveli ukuya kwiziqwenga ezili-18,000. Imfuno enkulu iyaqhubeka nokuguqula amandla emveliso yezixhobo zeebhodi eziphambili. Idibene nenyaniso yokuba amandla emveliso yezixhobo ezingasebenziyo eziphezulu agxile kubavelisi bamazwe ngamazwe abafana noMurata kunye neYageo, kwaye amandla emveliso yasekhaya anyuka kancinci, umsantsa wemfuno yokubonelela uyaqhubeka nokukhula, nto leyo eqhuba ixabiso le-MLCC yodidi lweemoto ukuba linyuke nge-8%-12% ngokudibeneyo, kwaye ixabiso lee-capacitor ze-tantalum ezinomthamo ophezulu linyuke nge-20%-30%.
II. Uthotho lweShishini le-PCB Phantsi koXinzelelo lweendleko, Imida ephindwe kabini yezixhobo ezikrwada kunye nomthamo wemveliso
Njenge "sakhelo" sebhodi ephambili, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eebhodi zesekethe eziprintiweyo (ii-PCB) kubangelwa kakhulu zizinto ezimbini zokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza kunye nokunqongophala kwamandla emveliso. Ubhedu lubangela malunga ne-30% yeendleko zemveliso yee-laminates ezigqunywe ngobhedu, izinto eziphambili ze-PCB. Ukususela ngo-2023 ukuya ku-2025, ixabiso lobhedu lamazwe ngamazwe lahlala kwinqanaba eliphezulu ngokwembali, lixhasa ngokuthe ngqo ixabiso elinyukayo lee-laminates ezigqunywe ngobhedu. Kwangaxeshanye, amaxabiso ezinto ezincedisayo ezifana nelaphu lefayibha yeglasi kunye ne-epoxy resin anyuka ngaxeshanye: ixabiso lentambo ye-elektroniki landa nge-800 yuan ngetoni, kwaye ixabiso lelaphu le-elektroniki landa nge-0.3 yuan ngemitha, nto leyo enyusa ngakumbi iindleko zemveliso yee-laminates ezigqunywe ngobhedu.
Ukunqongophala kwesakhiwo kwicala lomthamo wemveliso kuye kwandisa uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Imfuno enamandla yefoyile yobhedu kwishishini elitsha lezithuthi zamandla ikhokelele ekutshintsheni okukhulu kwamandla emveliso yefoyile yobhedu ye-PCB. Ukwakhiwa kwamandla amatsha emveliso yefoyile yobhedu ye-electrolytic kuthatha iminyaka emi-2-3 ukuqala ukusebenza, okwenza umsantsa wokubonelela wexesha elide. Ukongeza, amashishini e-laminate aphesheya kwezilwandle akhawulezisa utshintsho lwawo kwiimveliso eziphezulu, kwaye inani lomthamo wemveliso ephakathi ukuya kwesezantsi liyaqhubeka nokuhla, okukhokelela kumsantsa wokubonelela wehlabathi we-laminates ephakathi ukuya kwesezantsi ye-copper. Iibhodi eziphambili ze-smart TV zasekhaya zisebenzisa kakhulu ii-laminates eziphakathi ukuya kwezantsi ze-copper, zijongene ngqo nempembelelo ephindwe kabini yoxinzelelo lokubonelela kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Idatha ibonisa ukuba ixabiso lokuthenga ii-laminates eziqinileyo ze-copper-clad linyuke kakhulu kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2025, kunye nezinye iinkcukacha ezinyuka ngaphezulu kwe-12%.
III. Uhlengahlengiso lweTyeya leMizi-mveliso kunye neNdawo yangaphandle, Ukwandisa ukungaqiniseki ekutshintsheni kwamaxabiso
Uhlengahlengiso lwe-supply chain yehlabathi kunye neemeko ze-geopolitical zonyuse ngakumbi ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza. Ngokuchasene nokhuphiswano lwetekhnoloji lwe-Sino-US, amashishini asekhaya akhawulezisa ukutshintshwa kwendawo yezinto eziphambili ezifana neetships zolawulo eziphambili. Izinga lokufakwa kwendawo kweetships zolawulo eziphambili ze-smart TV lidlule kwi-35% ngo-2024. Nangona kunjalo, amandla okuvelisa爬坡kunye nokuphuculwa kwesivuno kwinqanaba lokuqala lokutshintshwa kwendawo kwenza kube nzima ukuba amaxabiso ezinye izinto zasekhaya enze inzuzo yeendleko kwixesha elifutshane. Kwangaxeshanye, abavelisi bebhodi ephambili baseke indlela "yokuthenga ngemithombo emibini" ukuqinisekisa ukhuseleko lwekhonkco lokubonelela, kwaye ukutshintsha kunye nokulinganisela phakathi kwababoneleli basekhaya nabaphesheya nako kwandisa ukungaqiniseki kweendleko zokuthenga.
Isiphumo esigqithisileyo somjikelo wempahla siye saqinisa uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso lwexesha elifutshane. Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2024, ishishini le-elektroniki ngokubanzi lalikwinqanaba lokususwa kwezinto ezikhoyo, kwaye uluhlu lwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo ezifana ne-copper-clad laminates kunye nelaphu le-glass fiber lwehle lwaya kwinqanaba eliphantsi kwiminyaka ephantse ibe mi-5, kunye neentsuku zempahla ezithile ezingaphantsi kweentsuku ezingama-30. Ukususela ekupheleni kuka-2024 ukuya ekuqaleni kuka-2025, ukubuyiswa kwemfuno ephantsi kunye nokuhlaziywa kwakhona kwezinto ezikhoyo kwenzeka ngaxeshanye. Xa unikezelo lungekabuyi ngokupheleleyo, ukukhululwa okuxineneyo kwemfuno ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yezinto ezikhoyo eziphantsi kukhuthaze ngokuthe ngqo ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngokukhawuleza. Ukongeza, izivumelwano zokuthenga zekota ezisayinwe phakathi kwabavelisi bebhodi ephambili kunye nabathengisi abaphezulu zinexesha elishiyekileyo ekuhlengahlengisweni kwamaxabiso, okubangela ukuncitshiswa kwenzuzo yeshishini ngexesha lokunyuka kwamaxabiso emarike, okudlulisela ngakumbi imfuno yokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Novemba-20-2025