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Te Tātari i ngā Take mō te Pikinga o ngā Utu o ngā Rauemi Mata o te Pouaka Whakaata Atamai

Hei "pūnaha io matua" o te pouaka whakaata atamai katoa, ka whakauruhia e te papa matua ngā wāhanga matua pēnei i ngā maramara whakahaere matua, ngā taputapu rokiroki, ngā papa ara iahiko tā (PCB), me ngā wāhanga kore mahi. Ko ngā piki me ngā heke o ngā utu o ōna rauemi mata ka pā tika ki ngā whanaketanga utu o te umanga pouaka whakaata katoa. Mai i te mutunga o te tau 2024 ki te tau 2025, i uru ngātahi ngā rauemi mata matua mō ngā papa matua pouaka whakaata atamai ki tētahi ara pikinga utu: i piki ake te utu hoko o ngā kōwae DDR4 4GB mā te 18% i ia tau, i piki ake te utu waeine o te mahara uira 32GB eMMC mā te neke atu i te 15%, ā, i piki tonu ngā utu o ngā papa parahi-whakakikoruatia, ngā pūnga teitei me ētahi atu hua, ka nui ake te pehanga utu ki ngā kaihanga papa matua me.ngā umangaEhara i te mea kotahi anake te take i puta ai tēnei pikinga utu, engari nā te pānga tahi o ngā mana maha pērā i ngā tauira tuku-tono, te whakarerekētanga hangarau, me te hanganga anō o te mekameka tuku.

I. Te kore taurite i waenga i te tuku me te tono o ngā wāhanga matua, ko ngā wāhanga rokiroki me ngā wāhanga kore mahi te take o te pikinga o te utu

Hei "pokapū mahara" o te papa matua, ko ngā taputapu rokiroki te mea tino pānga tika ki ngā utu mā roto i ngā piki me ngā heke o ā rātou utu. Ko te mahara DDR me te mahara uira whakauru eMMC te 12%-18% o te utu rauemi papa matua. Ko te mākete rokiroki o te ao e tino arohia ana ki ngā umanga matua pēnei i a Samsung, SK Hynix, me Micron, ā, ko ngā whakatikatika i te kaha whakaputa te mea e tino whakahaere ana i te ia o te utu. I te mutunga o te tau 2024, i whakatinanahia e ngā kaihanga rokiroki matua ngā whakahekenga whakaputa hei keri i te nui o ngā taonga o mua, ā, i arahina ki te whakawhāiti haere i te tuku o ngā wafers NAND Flash me DRAM, i panaia ai te utu o ngā maramara rokiroki kia piki tonu mai i te hauwhā tuawhā o te tau 2024. MōNgā umanga pouaka whakaataMēnā he nui ake i te 5 miriona ngā waeine e tukuna ana i ia tau, ko te pikinga utu o te rokiroki anake me utu anō kia 5-6 miriona tāra US ia tau.

Ko te mara wāhanga kore mahi e whakaatu ana i te pikinga utu hanganga e tohu ana i te "korenga o ngā hua utu nui me te toenga o ngā hua waenga-ki-iti". Ko ngā wāhanga pēnei i te MLCC (ngā pūnga maramara uku maha-paparanga) me ngā pūnga tantalum e hiahiatia ana mōpapa matua pouaka whakaata atamaiKei te pāngia e te pēhanga tono mai i ngā tūmau AI me ngā waka hiko hou i te wā kotahi. Ko te whakamahinga MLCC o tētahi tūmau AI kotahi e rua ngā wā i tērā o tētahi tūmau tuku iho, ā, e waru ngā wā i whakamahia ai te pūngao tantalum. Kua piki ake te whakamahinga MLCC mō ia waka hiko hou mai i te 6,000 ngā wahi mō ngā waka wahie tuku iho ki te 18,000 ngā wahi. Kei te huri tonu te tono nui i te kaha whakaputa o ngā wāhanga mō ngā papa matua. I te taha o te meka ko te kaha whakaputa o ngā wāhanga kore mahi teitei kei roto i ngā kaihanga o te ao pērā i a Murata me Yageo, ā, ka piki haere te kaha whakaputa ā-rohe, kei te whānui haere tonu te rerekētanga o te tuku me te tono, ka piki ake te utu o te MLCC kounga-aunoa mā te 8%-12% i te katoa, ā, ka piki ake te utu o ngā pūngao tantalum kaha-teitei mā te 20%-30%.

II. Te mekameka ahumahi PCB i raro i te pēhanga utu, ngā herenga takirua o ngā rauemi mata me te kaha whakaputa

Hei "anga" mō te papa matua, ko te pikinga o te utu o ngā papa hiko tā (PCB) e ahu mai ana i ngā āhuatanga e rua o te pikinga o te utu o ngā rauemi mata me te korenga o te kaha whakaputa. Ko te parahi te 30% o te utu whakaputa o ngā papa parahi-whakakikoruatia, te rauemi matua o ngā PCB. Mai i te tau 2023 ki te tau 2025, i noho tonu te utu parahi o te ao ki te taumata teitei o mua, e tautoko tika ana i te pikinga o te utu o ngā papa parahi-whakakikoruatia. I taua wā anō, i piki haere ngā utu o ngā rauemi āwhina pēnei i te kakahu muka karāhe me te kapia epoxy i te wā kotahi: i piki ake te utu o te miro hiko mā te 800 yuan ia tana, ā, i piki ake te utu o te kakahu hiko mā te 0.3 yuan ia mita, e piki ake ana te utu whakaputa o ngā papa parahi-whakakikoruatia.

Nā te korenga o te hanganga i te taha o te kaha whakaputa kua kaha ake te pēhanga pikinga utu. Nā te kaha o te tono mō te pepa parahi i roto i te umanga waka hiko hou kua arahi ki te hurihanga nui o te kaha whakaputa pepa parahi PCB-grade. E 2-3 tau te roa o te whakatinanatanga o te hanganga o te kaha whakaputa pepa parahi hiko hou, ka hanga he āputa tuku mō te wā roa. Hei tāpiri, kei te tere haere ngā umanga raima parahi o tāwāhi ki te huri ki ngā hua teitei, ā, kei te heke tonu te ōwehenga o te kaha whakaputa waenga-ki-iti, ka arahi ki te āputa tuku ā-ao o ngā raima parahi waenga-ki-iti. Ko te nuinga o ngā papaaho matua pouaka whakaata atamai ā-rohe e whakamahi ana i ngā raima parahi waenga-ki-iti, e anga tika ana ki te pānga rua o te taumahatanga tuku me te pikinga utu. E whakaatu ana ngā raraunga kua tino piki ake te utu hoko o ngā raima parahi pakari i te haurua tuatahi o te tau 2025, me te pikinga o ētahi whakatakotoranga neke atu i te 12%.

III. Te Hanganga Anō o te Mekameka Ahumahi me te Taiao o Waho, Te Whakakaha i te Āwangawanga o ngā Hurihuri Utu

Nā te hanganga anō o te mekameka tuku o te ao me ngā āhuatanga ā-rohe kua kaha ake te piki haere o ngā utu rauemi mata. I raro i te whakataetae hangarau a Sino-US, kei te tere ake te whakakapinga ā-rohe o ngā wāhanga matua pēnei i ngā maramara whakahaere matua ki te rohe o ngā umanga ā-rohe. Kua neke atu i te 35% te tere o te rohe o ngā maramara whakahaere matua o te pouaka whakaata atamai i te tau 2024. Heoi, ko te kaha whakaputa爬坡me te whakapainga hua i te wāhanga tuatahi o te whakakapinga ā-rohe ka uaua ki ngā utu o ētahi wāhanga o te whare te hanga i tētahi painga utu i roto i te wā poto. I taua wā anō, kua whakatūria e ngā kaihanga papa matua he tikanga "hoko takirua-pūtake" hei whakarite i te haumarutanga mekameka tuku, ā, ko te whakawhiti me te taurite i waenga i ngā kaiwhakarato o te whare me ngā kaiwhakarato o tāwāhi ka whakanui ake i te koretake o ngā utu hoko.

Nā te pānga o te huringa taonga kua kaha ake te pēhanga pikinga utu mō te wā poto. I te haurua tuatahi o te tau 2024, i te nuinga o te wā kei roto te umanga hikohiko i te wāhanga whakakore taonga, ā, kua heke te taonga o ngā rauemi mata pērā i ngā papa parahi me te kakahu muka karāhe ki te taumata iti rawa i roto i te tata ki te 5 tau, ā, ko ngā rā taonga o ētahi whakaritenga he iti iho i te 30 rā. Mai i te mutunga o te tau 2024 ki te tīmatanga o te tau 2025, i puta ngātahi te whakaoranga tono o raro me te whakakī anō i ngā taonga. I te wā kāore anō kia tino ora te tuku, ko te tukunga nui o te tono i runga i te papamuri o te iti o ngā taonga i whakatairanga tika i te pikinga tere o te utu. Hei tāpiri, ko ngā whakaaetanga hoko ā-hauwhā i hainatia i waenga i ngā kaihanga papa matua me ngā kaiwhakarato o runga he wā whakaroa i roto i te whakatikatika utu, ka hua ake te whakahekenga o ngā hua pakihi i te wā o te pikinga utu mākete, ka tukuna atu te tono pikinga utu.

 


Wā tuku: Whiringa-ā-rangi 20-2025