Ukungena kwikota yesibili ka-2026,imboni yomhlaba wonke kagesi kanye nogesiibhekene nengcindezi yezindleko engakaze ibonwe. Ukwanda kwentengo embonini yonke, okubangelwa yisidingo esikhulu samandla okubala i-AI kanye nokwenyuka okukhulu kwentengo yezimpahla, kusakazeka ngokushesha. Ukwenyuka kwentengo sekuyinto evunyelwene ngayo kulo lonke uchungechunge lwezimboni, kusukela ezingxenyeni eziyinhloko kuya kumishini yasekhaya yokugcina kanye ne-electronics yabathengi, okushintsha kakhulu isimo semakethe kanye nokukhetha kwabathengi.
1. Ukucindezela Okubili Okuvela Ezintweni Zokusetshenziswa Ezingavuthiwe Nama-Chips, Izindleko Zifinyelele Ekuphakameni Kweminyaka Eminingi
Ukwenyuka kwentengo kwamanje kuvela ekushaqekeni okuphindwe kabili kokunikezwa.
Ngasohlangothini lwezinto zokusetshenziswa, amanani ezinto eziningi ezifana nethusi, i-aluminium kanye nepulasitiki ye-ABS ayaqhubeka nokukhuphuka. Kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-Ephreli, intengo yethusi ifinyelele ku-RMB 94,452 ngethani, ikhuphuke ngo-18.2% unyaka nonyaka; i-aluminium ye-electrolytic ikhuphuke ngo-13.5% unyaka nonyaka; intengo yepulasitiki ye-ABS ikhuphuke ngo-26.2% unyaka nonyaka. Ithusi libiza u-25%-30% wezindleko zokukhiqiza i-air conditioner, lengeza ngaphezu kwe-RMB 300 kuyunithi ngayinye ye-1.5HP; amanani efriji akhuphuke ngo-80% kulo nyaka kuphela.
Ngasohlangothini lwe-chip kanye nezinto ze-elekthronikhi, amandla okukhiqiza amaseva e-AI adale umphumela wokuminyana. Abakhiqizi abakhulu besitoreji okuhlanganisa i-Samsung ne-SK Hynix bashintshe u-70%-80% wamandla abo athuthukisiwe baya ku-HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), okuholele ekutholakaleni okuncane kwe-DRAM kanye ne-NAND flash yabathengi. Amanani ama-MCU nama-chip okugcina emishini yasekhaya akhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-30% ezinyangeni eziyisithupha. Ngomhlaka-3 Ephreli, i-Mitsubishi Gas Chemical yaseJapan yamemezela ukwenyuka kwentengo ngo-30% kulo lonke ulayini wayo womkhiqizo we-copper-clad laminate (CCL), kulandelwa abakhiqizi basekhaya abaphambili njenge-Kingboard ne-Nan Ya. Amanani aphakathi embonini ye-PCB kulindeleke ukuthi akhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-20%.
2. Imboni Yezinto Zasekhaya Ihola Ekulungisweni Kwamanani, Amanani Okuthengisa Akhuphuka Kakhulu Ngo-Ephreli
Ingcindezi yezindleko isheshe yangena emakethe yokuthengisa. Kusukela ngomhlaka-1 kuMbasa, izinhlobo ezihamba phambili ezifaka phakathi iMidea, iHaier kanye ne-TCL zikhuphule amanani okunikezwayo: ama-air conditioner akhuphuke ngo-5%-8% (RMB 100-150 ngeyunithi ngayinye); izinto zasekhishini zikhuphuke ngo-10%-20%; izimpahla ezimhlophe kanye nezinto zasekhaya ezincane zikhuphuke ngo-3%-5%; amanye amamodeli aphezulu abone ukwanda ngo-30%.
Lo mjikelezo wokulungiswa kwamanani uhlose futhi ukubuyisela izinzuzo zemboni, eziye zacindezelwa yizimpi zamanani ezinde. Ngokuhambisana noshintsho lwenqubomgomo ka-2026 lwezibonelelo zokushintshana kwemishini yasekhaya kusukela ezixhasweni eziqondile ezigcwele kuya kumakhuphoni anqunyelwe isikhathi, isilinganiso soxhaso sehle saya ku-15%, okuvumela amanani ukuthi abuyele kancane kancane ezindinganisweni zemakethe. Abantu abangaphakathi embonini babikezela ukuthi njengoba isitokwe esinezindleko eziphansi siphela, abathengi bazozizwa bekhuphuka kakhulu ngentengo ngemva kukaMeyi.
3. Ukwandiswa Komthamo we-PCB kanye ne-Semiconductor Kuyashesha, kodwa Ukuntuleka Kokunikezwa Kwesikhathi Esifushane Kuyaqhubeka
Ibhekene nesidingo esikhulu, uchungechunge lwezimboni lusheshisa ukwanda kwamandla.I-SEMICON yaseShayina ngo-2026 shkunesikweletu sokuthi izinkampani zokupakisha nezokuhlola ezifana neTaiji Semiconductor kanye neTongfu Microelectronics zimemezele izinhlelo zokuphinda kabili umthamo wokukhiqiza ngo-2026; abakhiqizi be-PCB abaphambili basekhaya batshale imali engaphezu kwezigidigidi ezingama-RMB ezingama-40 kumthamo wekhwalithi ephezulu.
Kodwa-ke, ukwanda komthamo kuhilela isikhathi eside kakhulu. Imishini ye-semiconductor ithatha izinyanga ezingu-18-24 ukwakhiwa, futhi izikhathi zokuhola zokulethwa kwemishini ye-PCB ephezulu zingafinyelela eminyakeni emi-2. I-TrendForce ibikezela ukuthi ukushoda kokunikezwa kuzoqhubeka phakathi no-2026, futhi ukuthambekela kwentengo ekhuphukayo kungase kuqhubeke kuze kube yingxenye yokuqala ka-2027. Ukuhlanganiswa kwemboni kuyaqina: amabhizinisi ahamba phambili aqinisa isikhundla sawo ngezinzuzo ezinkulu nezobuchwepheshe, kuyilapho abakhiqizi abancane nabaphakathi bebhekene nengcindezi ephindwe kabili evela ezindleleni nasezi-oda, okusheshisa ukucaciswa kwemakethe.
4. Ukunika Amandla i-AI Kuba Yisihluthulelo Sentuthuko, Ushintsho Olusezingeni Eliphezulu Luyashesha
Izinkinga nazo ziletha amathuba. I-AWE 2026 iqinisekisile ukuthi izinto zasekhaya ezisebenzisa i-AI sezibe yintuthuko eyinhloko embonini. Izinto zasekhaya ezihlakaniphile ezihlonyiswe ngamamodeli amakhulu olimi zithuthukisiwe kusukela “kumadivayisi asebenzayo” kuya “kubasizi bendlela yokuphila”, kanti amanani eyunithi akhuphuka ngo-30%-100% kanye nemivuzo ekhulayo ngamaphesenti angu-5-10. NgoMashi 31, i-TCL yasayina isivumelwano ne-Sony sokusungula ibhizinisi elihlangene lebhizinisi layo lokuzijabulisa ekhaya, okujulisa ukwakheka okuphezulu nokwezwe lonke emkhakheni we-TV.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Ephreli-10-2026
